The Impact of Climate Change on Yield Potential of Maize across China

Maize is one of the major crops in China and its yield potential has been changedsignificantly by climate change induction during last five decades. The national policy of maizeproduction sufficiency emphasizes the necessity for a more accurate estimation of yieldpotential of maize at a national level. In this paper yield potential of maize was calculated usingthe Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) model and key meteorological factors impact onyield potential across China was also analyzed. The results shows that, total yield potential ofmaize increased by 0.15 million tons/year during the past five decades due to an increase incultivated area as a result of climate change impact. The partial correlation analysis betweenmain meteorological factors and yield potential of maize at a county level showed that 47% ofthe counties of China were predominately influenced by changes in solar radiation while 16% ofcounties were predominately affected by temperature changes. In addition, each agriculturalzone showed clear spatial difference in the distribution of key impact factors. These researchfindings will not only provide scientific basis for making good use of meteorological resourcesunder climate change, but also play a vital role for the management of national maizeproduction for food security.